Thursday, 22 September 2016


FUNDITS

          Some people still believe that a pot of gold may be found at the end of a rainbow and their belief is validated by the fact that a few people actually do discover it there. For most of us, the end of the rainbow simply recedes further and further from us no matter how relentlessly we chase it, until it vanishes altogether. But not so for some, and so it is the job of financial pundits – or fundits, as I call them for short – to encourage those most likely to find the pots of gold to go on looking. But this task in the present economic climate can be challenging for them, though fortunately the fundits can afford to ignore a few things along the way in boostering for the stock market.  Which is as well for them.
          Thus with regard to the overwhelming majority of the population who will never reach the end of the rainbow, let alone find any gold whatsoever, the following may be of interest:
          According to a new report on Britain by Oxfam, 1% of her population owns almost more than 20 times the total wealth as the poorest fifth: that is, 634,000 of the wealthiest people against the poorest 13 million. This makes Britain, the world’s sixth wealthiest economy, one of the most unequal of countries in the developed world. Over half of Britain’s wealth is concentrated in the hands of the richest 10%, while the poorest 20% share 0.8% of the wealth between them.
          The head of Oxfam’s UK programme, Rachael Orr: ‘While executive pay soars, one in five people live below the poverty line and struggle to pay their bills and put food on the table.’ According to the charity Global Justice Now, corporations make up 69% of the world’s richest entities. Walmart, for instance, is worth more than either Spain, the Netherlands or Australia. Three Chinese corporations are worth more than the entire economy of South Korea. (Morning Star 13.9.16) The top six wealthiest entities are: the USA, China, Germany, Japan, France and the UK, followed by Italy, Brazil and Canada. The 10th wealthiest is Walmart. 14th is China’s electricity monopoly, then China National Petroleum at 15th and the Chinese (oil) Sinopec Group at 16th. Royal Dutch Shell is 18th, Exxon Mobile is 21st, Volkswagen 22nd, Toyota 23rd and Apple a mere 26th. The value of the top ten corporations, at $285 trillion, tops the combined worth, $280 trillion, of the bottom 180 of the world’s countries. Global Justice Now ‘blamed governments for bowing to pressure from multinational firms to promote business-friendly tax regimes above the needs of their citizens.’ UK government support for TTIP ‘is the latest example of government help to big business.’ (Guardian 13.9.16) Unite union general secretary Len McCluskey wrote in the Morning Star for 10.9.16: ‘[In] 2016 our children will be poorer than we are; housing need is just one of a number of material scandals; pay has yet to recover to its pre-crash value let alone rise; five million workers are termed self-employed; foodbanks are no longer an urgent response to an emerging problem but a vital part of our social fabric. Our NHS is in genuine crisis and all eyes are watching for government action on Brexit that will not see job prospects and workers’ rights worsen.’
          Things do not appear to be much better in the Land of Opportunity, according to The Guardian for 13.9.16: ‘Desperate US teenagers turn to sex to work to pay for food’: ‘A Washington-based thinktank, the Urban Institute, described girls “selling their body” or using “sex for money” to make ends meet. Boys desperate for food were said to shoplift and sell drugs.’ Boys and girls trying to avoid the stigma of prostitution provide sex in return for a hot meal, not for money as such. And food is stolen to feed whole families, not just the thief. All this information and more besides was drawn from 10 poor communities across the United States.
          But there is light at the end of the tunnel. According to data collected by Capita Assets Services, total dividends paid out by the UK’s listed companies since 2000 have passed £1 trillion, ‘outstripping both inflation and economic growth’. (‘UK dividends to pass £1 trillion mark’, Daily Telegraph 7.9.16.) Capita expects the £2 trillion mark ‘to be reached well within the next decade.’
          It’s good news like this that would appear to inspire the opening remarks by fundit and business editor Allister Heath when he writes: ‘Karl Marx was wrong: free markets are wonderful. They have delivered prosperity on an astonishing scale and helped bind the world together. But their greatest triumph has been their ability to turn workers into capitalists.’ (Daily Telegraph 28.8.16)
          I begin to fear that the 13 million people mentioned earlier will not fit easily into this ‘capitalist’ category, nor will workers in Britain in general, I hazard. They participate in capitalism, of course, and they are certainly the basis for all the wealth just described, but the nature of their participation is rather different from that of the ‘personifications of capital’ as such.  I wonder if Mr Heath is making in the above passage the same elision of ‘worker’ and ‘middle class’ that pertains in the United States, where the term ‘working class’ is verboten and everyone is, in fact, ‘middle class’. Whether living in a penthouse suite overlooking Central Park or in a cardboard box somewhere under Brooklyn Bridge.
          In another article (Daily Telegraph 15.9.16) Heath appears to have a clearer idea of distinction between the two classes in Britain when he writes of a welfare state ‘that has bailed out the poor’, but this suggests some shortcomings grasping the reality of any such bailing out (see above) as well as logical inconsistency: if the market was so ‘wonderful’ (on 28.8.16) why do we have any ‘poor’ at all? That is, in need of bailing out? (Which they aren’t being, anyhow.)
          But in fact the bulk of our fundit’s 28.8.16 article is – gainsaying the optimism of its opening – pessimistic if not alarmist. For Mr Heath, it turns out, is worried about ‘savers’, who ‘are facing their greatest challenge since the 1970s.’ Indeed, his article is headlined ‘Cheap money is destroying all our futures and killing capitalism’!
          Of course it turns out to be our own fault, not capitalism’s, for the problem according to Heath is that today’s savers ‘now live longer’, which is a shame, really. If only people could continue to die out when they used to – in their sixties, say – then the final salary pension plus state aid would have remained sustainable. So individuals – it serves them right – now have to look to themselves for long-term survival, ‘and rightly so: the old paternalistic model was always an aberration, an unsustainable phase of early capitalism.’
          In other words, paternalistic capitalism was a hiccough between the era of the Industrial Revolution when workers’ self-sufficiency eventually put them in the workhouse, and the era of today when they have come to depend on foodbanks. A blip, a provision of basic care which according to our fundit was ‘an aberration’. Fortunately we have entrepreneurs today like Sir Philip Green to show us just how unsustainable the final salary pension can be, and indeed how successful late capitalism is.
          ‘The problem is,’ continues Heath, ‘that ultra-low interest rates are destroying the economics of wealth accumulation.’ This will be news to those great wealth accumulators like Sir Philip   and the even greater Warren Buffett and Carlos Slim. They and those of like magnitude seem to have no problem with ‘the economics of wealth accumulation’, as is suggested by the statistics already given, above.
          Yet the ‘savers’ whom our fundit is so worried about have been ‘the epitome of the responsible individualism that underpins all successful democracies.’ But democracy cannot it seems be all that successful; with ‘gilt yields of 0.5% and inflation at 0.6%, compounding is dead. Real returns are either zero or negative; time is no longer the saver’s friend.’ Result: ‘Britain’s wealth-owning majority [sic] will suddenly realise how hard it has become to make money from money.’ Well, hard for them. It doesn’t appear to trouble the bulk of hedge funds, which exist and prosper precisely out of making money from money.
          And as the ‘savers’ become aware of this, ‘pain and anger will set in, and there is nothing scarier than the middle classes on the warpath’. But before dialling 999 it’s worth noting that: ‘there won’t be a revolution, merely a gradual and dangerous rise in resentment.’ What a letdown. Suburbia will not go up in flames after all.
          Governments and central banks must, it seems, take much of the blame for low interest rates: ‘their obsession with pushing down the cost of borrowing has led to a monumental mispricing of money.’
          I am not quite sure how money can be ‘mispriced’, since it reflects social activity and is therefore ‘priced’ accordingly. Money by itself has no value at all, as the Germans of 1923 learned to their cost. The value of money is tied to and goes up and down with a host of conditions, national and international, political and economic.
          But Heath is on to something, since ultra-low interest rates have not of themselves increased borrowing and investing by very much. These low rates plus quantitative easing are having diminishing positive effects. On the other hand – as Heath’s fellow Telegraph fundit Jeremy Warner points out in another edition, the very threat of the Federal Reserve Board’s raising of rate of interest by even a tiny amount sends shockwaves throughout the world economies. The problem lies in the mountains of debt accumulated by governments, individuals, bankers, firms, for all of whom the slightest rise in the rate of interest would be catastrophic. Whatever the tenor of Heath’s remarks, the powers-that-be are not wilfully against ordinary ‘savers’. They’d love to help them. But in the current state of play such ‘savers’ are the (sometimes) useful idiots who can and must be – disregarded. In a more civilised way, they are to the capitalist system today what the richer peasants of 1930s Russia were to Stalin: a necessary sacrifice. Somebody had to go. ‘Savers’ are the least of the world’s problems in a world of heavy borrowers.
          And underlying all of this is the slackness in world demand for both capital and consumer goods. Read your Baltic Dry, Mr Heath. And this in turn comes down to the rich monopolising the funds thus freezing out the increasingly large majority of non-rich who, after all, must in one way or another buy back all that has been produced if the system is to re-energise and Mr Heath is able to restore any great confidence in the ‘wonderful’ market. But if the masses cannot, for purely economic reasons, buy all the stuff back then the answer is that they should own it already. Mr Heath as a fundit would obviously prefer another option: ‘It may be, in the end, that we will all [sic] have to contribute twice as much, saving up to 20 per cent of our incomes across our working life, while spending less on luxuries, and retiring even later.’ How much later, one wonders? And what does that do for younger-age-group employment? Indeed, if we save so much, holding back on ‘luxuries’ (i.e. purchases), where will investment and jobs be then, when nobody is spending much of anything on anything? At least the financial bods will do all right out of the pension side of this. As for saving 20%, what do we put it into before we need it? And who has or will have the 20% to spare?
          Our fundit has indeed picked up on a capitalist malaise of our time but to put his finger on its root cause – woeful but entirely characteristic and necessary inequality leading to overproduction and consequent lack of investment (an old, old story) - he would perforce have to be critical of the market system, which is ‘wonderful’ and of which he is one of its leading liaison officers. So, widen the appeal of the article (if not narrowing and sharpening the argument) by appealing to ‘all’ of us since his Britain is a mythical realm of sturdy small savers. Alas for him they are but a minority  and by no means the most important sector in the eyes of those trying to save the world economy – or these, from the Governor of the Bank of England on down – would have strained every muscle to do something for them long since. (And there are, after all, votes in it, at least for the Conservatives and the US Republicans.)
          Fundit Mr Heath seeks some sort of historical resonance for his ‘savers’. Again unfortunately for him the history of capitalism is littered with the bodies of the ‘little people’ whom, as Heath says, the Marxists refer to ‘disparagingly’ as the petty bourgeoisie. Their history is one of secular economic decline against the ever-greater forces of capital which favour the bigger over the smaller investor and businessman, a decline leading sooner or later into proletarianisation – and certainly that of their children, as we see today before our eyes. Fascism of one sort or another tends to be their protest of choice. Today we have millions masquerading as ‘self-employed’ because they cannot find jobs. Their situation is ultimately rather hopeless, so Mr Heath may be right in prognosticating a ‘warpath’ as a result. In that event, will the Daily Telegraph, the Daily Mail and the evergreen Nigel Farage (and even Donald Trump) be enough to satisfy them?






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